All matches

FK Livyi Bereh — FC Zorya Luhansk, Ukrainian Premier League

Ukraine, Ukrainian Premier League

FK Livyi Bereh
1.3WLDDD
—
FC Zorya Luhansk
2.0LDDLW
Outcome probability
233245
FK Livyi Bereh23%Draw32%FC Zorya Luhansk45%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1FK Livyi Bereh23%4.31—
XDraw32%3.11—
2FC Zorya Luhansk45%2.24—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes29%

ours 3.42

No71%

ours 1.41

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFK Livyi BerehFC Zorya LuhanskCombined
Goals scored0.670.831.50
Conceded0.501.832.33
Corners9.39.59.4
Cards1.22.03.2
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    FK Livyi BerehFC Zorya Luhansk
    9Table position8
    48.30%Possession46.70%
    14Days of rest14
    0Matches in 14 days0
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    FC Zorya Luhansk travel as favourites: despite playing away, a win is rated at 45%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Both teams to score: No

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

FK Livyi Bereh

  • awayFK Epitsentr Dunayivtsi2:0
  • awayPolessya Zhitomir0:1
  • awayFK Chornomorets Odessa0:0
  • homeFC Karpaty Lviv1:1
  • awayFK Hirnyk Kryvyi Rih1:1

FC Zorya Luhansk

  • homeFC Dynamo Kyiv0:2
  • awayFK Bukovyna Chernivtsi1:1
  • awayFC Veres Rivne1:1
  • homeFC Metalist 1925 Kharkiv0:3
  • awayPolessya Zhitomir2:1

Head to head

  • 04/25/25Ukrainian Premier League1:2
  • 10/27/24Ukrainian Premier League0:2

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
6FK Epitsentr Dunayivtsi72236:78
7LNZ Cherkasy FC72235:88
8FC Zorya Luhansk72237:118
9FK Livyi Bereh61414:37
10FK Bukovyna Chernivtsi71424:67
11FC Veres Rivne61324:56

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.