All matches

FK Kudrivka — FK Bukovyna Chernivtsi, Ukrainian Premier League

Ukraine, Ukrainian Premier League

FK Kudrivka
1.2LLLDD
—
FK Bukovyna Chernivtsi
1.8LDDWL
Outcome probability
213049
FK Kudrivka21%Draw30%FK Bukovyna Chernivtsi49%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1FK Kudrivka21%4.83—
XDraw30%3.33—
2FK Bukovyna Chernivtsi49%2.03—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes36%

ours 2.77

No64%

ours 1.57

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFK KudrivkaFK Bukovyna ChernivtsiCombined
Goals scored0.500.671.17
Conceded1.831.002.83
Corners5.512.89.2
Cards3.31.64.8
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    FK KudrivkaFK Bukovyna Chernivtsi
    16Table position10
    6.1Days of rest5.9
    47.80%Possession47.60%
    1Matches in 14 days1
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Away from home, FK Bukovyna Chernivtsi still look stronger — an away win is rated at 49%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

First half total: Under 1.5

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

FK Kudrivka

  • homeFK Kolos Kovalivka2:3
  • awayPolessya Zhitomir1:5
  • homeFK Epitsentr Dunayivtsi0:3
  • homeFC Obolon-Brovar Kyiv0:0
  • awayFK Livyi Bereh0:0

FK Bukovyna Chernivtsi

  • awayFC Metalist 1925 Kharkiv0:2
  • homeFC Zorya Luhansk1:1
  • awayFK Epitsentr Dunayivtsi0:0
  • homeFC Dynamo Kyiv3:0
  • awayFC Karpaty Lviv0:3

Head to head

No head-to-head matches on record.

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
8FC Zorya Luhansk72237:118
9FK Livyi Bereh61414:37
10FK Bukovyna Chernivtsi71424:67
11FC Veres Rivne61324:56
12FK Hirnyk Kryvyi Rih61237:105
13FK Kolos Kovalivka61236:105
14FK Chornomorets Odessa61233:75
15FC Obolon-Brovar Kyiv70432:124
16FK Kudrivka60244:162

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.