All matches

FK Krasnodar — FK Zenit St. Petersburg, Russian Premier League

Russia, Russian Premier League

FK Krasnodar
3.5DDDWW
—
FK Zenit St. Petersburg
3.5WWLWL
Outcome probability
403327
FK Krasnodar40%Draw33%FK Zenit St. Petersburg27%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1FK Krasnodar40%2.53—
XDraw33%3.03—
2FK Zenit St. Petersburg27%3.64—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes44%

ours 2.25

No56%

ours 1.80

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFK KrasnodarFK Zenit St. PetersburgCombined
Goals scored1.001.672.67
Conceded0.501.171.67
Corners7.810.39.1
Cards2.22.04.2
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    FK KrasnodarFK Zenit St. Petersburg
    1Table position5
    59.70%Possession60.50%
    14Days of rest14
    0Matches in 14 days0
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Home advantage and current form favour FK Krasnodar: a home win is rated at 39%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Double chance: Home or draw

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

FK Krasnodar

  • awayFK Orenburg0:0
  • homeFK Akron Togliatti1:1
  • awayPFK Krylya Sovetov Samara2:2
  • homeFK Rostov1:0
  • awayFK Makhachkala1:0

FK Zenit St. Petersburg

  • awayFK Baltika Kaliningrad3:2
  • homeFK Lokomotiv Moskva2:1
  • homePFK CSKA Moskva1:2
  • awayFK Fakel Voronezh1:0
  • awayFK Spartak Moskva0:2

Head to head

  • 04/12/26Russian Premier League1:1
  • 09/21/25Russian Premier League0:2
  • 04/13/25Russian Premier League1:4
  • 09/28/24Russian Premier League2:0

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1FK Krasnodar963014:721
2FK Spartak Moskva961216:719
3PFK CSKA Moskva954015:919
4FK Dinamo Moskva961214:819
5FK Zenit St. Petersburg960319:918
6FK Rubin Kazan926112:1112
7FK Makhachkala940515:1612

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.