FK Košice — MŠK Žilina, Super Liga

Slovakia, Super LigaOctober 25 at 05:00 PM

FK Košice

1.9WLWDL

—

MŠK Žilina

2.5WDWWW

Outcome probability

312544

FK Košice31%Draw25%MŠK Žilina44%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1FK Košice31%3.22—

XDraw25%4.00—

2MŠK Žilina44%2.27—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes73%

ours 1.36

No27%

ours 3.77

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFK KošiceMŠK ŽilinaCombined

Goals scored1.501.833.33

Conceded1.171.002.17

Corners9.08.88.9

Cards2.82.04.8

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
FK KošiceMŠK Žilina
7Table position2
49.30%Possession51.00%
7.1Days of rest7
1Matches in 14 days1
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Away from home, MŠK Žilina still look stronger — an away win is rated at 44%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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