All matches

FK Kauno Žalgiris — VMFD Žalgiris Vilnius, A Lyga

Lithuania, A Lyga

FK Kauno Žalgiris
3.0WLWWW
—
VMFD Žalgiris Vilnius
2.8LWDWL
Outcome probability
522622
FK Kauno Žalgiris52%Draw26%VMFD Žalgiris Vilnius22%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1FK Kauno Žalgiris52%1.92—
XDraw26%3.80—
2VMFD Žalgiris Vilnius22%4.62—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes48%

ours 2.09

No52%

ours 1.92

Over 2.5 goals

This market opens with a subscription.

See plans

Over 9.5 corners

This market opens with a subscription.

See plans

Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFK Kauno ŽalgirisVMFD Žalgiris VilniusCombined
Goals scored0.830.671.50
Conceded0.500.831.33
Corners12.79.311.0
Cards2.71.54.2
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

Start freePlans

Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    FK Kauno ŽalgirisVMFD Žalgiris Vilnius
    1Table position4
    3Matches in 14 days1
    4Days of rest8.1
    58.00%Possession53.30%
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    FK Kauno Žalgiris look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 52%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

    The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription

    Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

    Start freePlans

More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

First half total: Over 0.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

Two more scenarios — with a subscription

Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

Start freePlans

Form and context

FK Kauno Žalgiris

  • awayFA Šiauliai2:0
  • awayVMFD Žalgiris Vilnius2:3
  • awayFK Panevėžys1:0
  • homeFK Sūduva Marijampolė5:1
  • homeFK Džiugas Telšiai5:0

VMFD Žalgiris Vilnius

  • awayFK TransINVEST Vilnius0:3
  • homeFK Kauno Žalgiris3:2
  • awayFK Sūduva Marijampolė0:0
  • homeFA Šiauliai1:0
  • awayFK Panevėžys0:2

Head to head

  • 09/16/26A Lyga2:3
  • 05/31/26A Lyga0:1
  • 04/05/26A Lyga3:0
  • 10/22/25A Lyga1:2
  • 08/04/25A Lyga2:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1FK Kauno Žalgiris30169562:2157
2FK Sūduva Marijampolė301511447:2556
3FK TransINVEST Vilnius30156951:3551
4VMFD Žalgiris Vilnius301461044:3648
5FK Banga Gargždai30138941:2847
6FK Džiugas Telšiai301281039:4044

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription

Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

PlansSign in

Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.