All matches

FK Kairat Almaty — Panathinaikos FC, UEFA Europa Conference League

Europe, UEFA Europa Conference League

FK Kairat Almaty
3.1LLWWW
—
Panathinaikos FC
3.2WWWWW
Outcome probability
202753
FK Kairat Almaty20%Draw27%Panathinaikos FC53%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1FK Kairat Almaty20%4.94—
XDraw27%3.77—
2Panathinaikos FC53%1.88—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes47%

ours 2.14

No53%

ours 1.88

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFK Kairat AlmatyPanathinaikos FCCombined
Goals scored0.671.171.84
Conceded0.830.171.00
Corners9.010.09.5
Cards1.71.02.7
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    FK Kairat AlmatyPanathinaikos FC
    45.00%Possession58.70%
    4.1Days of rest3.9
    3Matches in 14 days3
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Panathinaikos FC travel as favourites: despite playing away, a win is rated at 53%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total goals: Over 1.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

FK Kairat Almaty

  • awayFK Astana0:1
  • homeFK Tobol Kostanay1:4
  • homeFK Zhenys3:0
  • awayFC Caspiy3:0
  • awayFK Yelimay Semey2:0

Panathinaikos FC

  • awayPS PAE Kalamata1:0
  • homePanaitolikos GFS Agrinio3:0
  • homeKifisias FC3:1
  • homePAOK Thessaloniki FC3:1
  • awayLevadiakos FC2:0

Head to head

No head-to-head matches on record.

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
12FC Midtjylland440011:312
13FK Jablonec 64029:512
14Panathinaikos FC633011:812
15KS Dinamo Tirana832315:911
16KS Raków Częstochowa632112:611

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.