All matches

Kairat — Zhetysu Taldykorgan, Kazakhstan Premier League

Kazakhstan, Kazakhstan Premier League

Kairat
3.1LLWWW
—
Zhetysu Taldykorgan
0.9LLWLL
Outcome probability
85
Kairat85%Draw11%Zhetysu Taldykorgan4%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Kairat85%90%1.171.11-4.6
XDraw11%8%9.0312.50+3.1
2Zhetysu Taldykorgan4%9%26.3911.50-4.9

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes32%

ours 3.17book 1.70

No68%

ours 1.46book 2.05

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricKairatZhetysu TaldykorganCombined
Goals scored1.500.502.00
Conceded1.332.333.66
Corners8.29.58.8
Cards2.53.35.8
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    KairatZhetysu Taldykorgan
    2Table position16
    45.00%Possession51.70%
    14Days of rest14
    0Matches in 14 days0
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    FK Kairat Almaty look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 85%. Bookmakers price this at 1.11.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Both teams to score: No

69%2.05
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Kairat

  • awayAstana0:1
  • homeTobol1:4
  • homeZhenys3:0
  • awayCaspiy3:0
  • awayYelimay2:0

Zhetysu Taldykorgan

  • homeCaspiy0:1
  • awayYelimay1:2
  • homeIrtysh Pavlodar1:0
  • awayUlytau Zhezkazgan0:3
  • awayZhenys1:4

Head to head

  • 03/21/26Kazakhstan Premier League0:0
  • 10/05/25Kazakhstan Premier League5:0
  • 06/14/25Kazakhstan Premier League2:2
  • 10/26/24Kazakhstan Premier League2:1
  • 04/06/24Kazakhstan Premier League0:0

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Ordabasy26194351:1861
2Kairat26176351:2057
3Astana25146542:2548
4Okzhetpes Kokshetau26136741:3545
5Aktobe26126838:3142
6Yelimay25108735:3338
7Tobol261041233:3534
8Zhenys26881026:3232
9Ulytau Zhezkazgan26881024:3232
10Caspiy26851327:3629
11Irtysh Pavlodar25681126:3426
12Kyzyl-Zhar Petropavlovsk26671328:3925
13Kaisar Kyzylorda264121022:3324
14Atyrau254111018:2823
15Altay26581325:3823
16Zhetysu Taldykorgan26571426:4422

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.