All matches

FK Jablonec — Brighton & Hove Albion FC, UEFA Europa Conference League

Europe, UEFA Europa Conference League

FK Jablonec
2.5DLWLD
—
Brighton & Hove Albion FC
2.6WWDLW
Outcome probability
2067
FK Jablonec 13%Draw20%Brighton & Hove Albion FC67%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1FK Jablonec 13%7.62—
XDraw20%4.95—
2Brighton & Hove Albion FC67%1.50—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes51%

ours 1.98

No49%

ours 2.02

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFK Jablonec Brighton & Hove Albion FCCombined
Goals scored0.671.502.17
Conceded0.500.170.67
Corners12.710.711.7
Cards1.02.33.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    FK Jablonec Brighton & Hove Albion FC
    13Table position63
    4Days of rest4.2
    58.30%Possession58.70%
    3Matches in 14 days3
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Brighton & Hove Albion FC travel as favourites: despite playing away, a win is rated at 67%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total corners: Under 11.5

68%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

FK Jablonec

  • homeFC FASTAV Zlín1:1
  • awayAC Sparta Praha0:2
  • homeFC Banik Ostrava3:0
  • homeFC Slovan Liberec1:2
  • awayBohemians 19051:1

Brighton & Hove Albion FC

  • homeArsenal FC3:0
  • awayCoventry City FC5:0
  • homeLeeds United FC1:1
  • awayChelsea FC3:4
  • homeTromsø IL4:0

Head to head

No head-to-head matches on record.

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
11KF Drita633014:512
12FC Midtjylland440011:312
13FK Jablonec 64029:512
14Panathinaikos FC633011:812
15KS Dinamo Tirana832315:911
16KS Raków Częstochowa632112:611
17SK Brann632113:911
18HNK Hajduk Split431014:610
19KF Shkendija631211:510
20FK Rīgas Futbola skola631210:710
21Motherwell FC631210:810
22FK Austria Wien63128:610
23KAA Gent62405:310
24HNK Rijeka63125:710
25Tallinna FC Levadia430113:49
26Apollon Limassol430110:49
27FC Maxline Vitebsk43017:39
28FK Auda Riga43018:79
29VMFD Žalgiris Vilnius630314:169
30Inter Club d'Escaldes42208:28
31Hapoel Tel Aviv FC62227:58
32FC Sion622214:138
33Hibernian FC62228:78
34Tampereen Ilves62226:58
35NSÍ Runavík62228:98
36Paide Linnameeskond62227:88
37FC Twente421113:57
38Helsingin Jalkapalloklubi42119:37
39FC Vaduz42119:47
40Zira IK42117:27
41Pyunik FC42114:17
42UMF Stjarnan42117:57
43Tromsø IL42117:57
44KF Ballkani42117:67
45FC Dinamo Minsk62135:57
46Bohemian FC62138:97
47FC Dinamo Tbilisi42118:97
48Nõmme Kalju FC42117:87
49DAC 1904 Dunajská Streda42117:97
50SC Freiburg22007:26
51FC Sankt Gallen 1879420210:66
52AS Monaco FC22007:36
53Ujvara e Malishevës42029:66
54GKS Katowice42026:66
55Beitar Jerusalem FC42026:66
56Qarabağ Ağdam FK42024:56
57Don Denis FC Santa Coloma42027:96
58FK Liepāja42024:66
59FC UNA Strassen42023:56
60M-Perruquers Atlètic Club d'Escaldes42024:86
61ETO FC41218:55
62FC Artsakh41216:65
63Brighton & Hove Albion FC21104:04
64Paphos FC21105:34
65Kuopion Palloseura21102:14

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.