All matches

Irtysh Pavlodar — Kyzyl-Zhar Petropavlovsk, Kazakhstan Premier League

Kazakhstan, Kazakhstan Premier League

Irtysh Pavlodar
1.6WWLWL
—
Kyzyl-Zhar Petropavlovsk
1.2DLLLD
Outcome probability
422929
Irtysh Pavlodar42%Draw29%Kyzyl-Zhar Petropavlovsk29%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Irtysh Pavlodar42%2.38—
XDraw29%3.45—
2Kyzyl-Zhar Petropavlovsk29%3.45—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes43%

ours 2.33

No57%

ours 1.75

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricIrtysh PavlodarKyzyl-Zhar PetropavlovskCombined
Goals scored1.170.832.00
Conceded1.501.833.33
Corners8.810.89.8
Cards2.01.53.5
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Irtysh PavlodarKyzyl-Zhar Petropavlovsk
    11Table position12
    48.00%Possession45.70%
    14Days of rest14
    0Matches in 14 days0
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Home advantage and current form favour FK Irtysh Pavlodar: a home win is rated at 42%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Double chance: No draw

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Irtysh Pavlodar

  • awayAltay2:1
  • homeOkzhetpes Kokshetau2:1
  • awayZhetysu Taldykorgan0:1
  • homeAktobe2:1
  • homeTobol0:2

Kyzyl-Zhar Petropavlovsk

  • homeKaisar Kyzylorda1:1
  • awayZhenys1:3
  • homeAtyrau0:1
  • awayOrdabasy0:3
  • homeAstana1:1

Head to head

  • 03/20/26Kazakhstan Premier League2:2

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
9Ulytau Zhezkazgan26881024:3232
10Caspiy26851327:3629
11Irtysh Pavlodar25681126:3426
12Kyzyl-Zhar Petropavlovsk26671328:3925
13Kaisar Kyzylorda264121022:3324
14Atyrau254111018:2823

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.