All matches

IMT Novi Beograd — Radnik Surdulica, SuperLiga

Serbia, SuperLiga

IMT Novi Beograd
2.0DLDWL
—
Radnik Surdulica
1.9DDDWL
Outcome probability
433324
IMT Novi Beograd43%Draw33%Radnik Surdulica24%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1IMT Novi Beograd43%2.34—
XDraw33%2.99—
2Radnik Surdulica24%4.21—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes44%

ours 2.25

No56%

ours 1.80

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricIMT Novi BeogradRadnik SurdulicaCombined
Goals scored0.831.672.50
Conceded0.831.832.66
Corners7.39.08.2
Cards2.03.25.2
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    IMT Novi BeogradRadnik Surdulica
    5Table position7
    47.70%Possession43.80%
    14Days of rest14
    0Matches in 14 days0
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Home advantage and current form favour FK IMT Novi Beograd: a home win is rated at 43%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total cards: Over 3.5

69%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

IMT Novi Beograd

  • awayVojvodina1:1
  • homeRed Star Belgrade0:1
  • awayOFK Beograd1:1
  • homeMladost Lucani2:0
  • awayRadnicki Kragujevac1:2

Radnik Surdulica

  • homePartizan4:4
  • awayZemun1:1
  • homeRed Star Belgrade0:0
  • homeCukaricki Stankom3:1
  • awayZeleznicar Pancevo1:5

Head to head

  • 03/02/26SuperLiga0:0
  • 09/26/25SuperLiga0:2

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
3Radnicki Kragujevac952217:917
4Mladost Lucani1044210:1216
5IMT Novi Beograd1043312:715
6Zeleznicar Pancevo942314:1014
7Radnik Surdulica1035214:1514
8Novi Pazar1034310:1113
9Cukaricki Stankom1032512:1811

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.