All matches

FK Hirnyk Kryvyi Rih — LNZ Cherkasy FC, Ukrainian Premier League

Ukraine, Ukrainian Premier League

FK Hirnyk Kryvyi Rih
2.0LDLDW
—
LNZ Cherkasy FC
2.2LWDLW
Outcome probability
303238
FK Hirnyk Kryvyi Rih30%Draw32%LNZ Cherkasy FC38%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1FK Hirnyk Kryvyi Rih30%3.32—
XDraw32%3.12—
2LNZ Cherkasy FC38%2.64—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes42%

ours 2.37

No58%

ours 1.73

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFK Hirnyk Kryvyi RihLNZ Cherkasy FCCombined
Goals scored0.500.831.33
Conceded0.830.831.66
Corners7.87.07.4
Cards1.81.43.1
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    FK Hirnyk Kryvyi RihLNZ Cherkasy FC
    12Table position7
    7.9Days of rest7
    41.30%Possession39.00%
    1Matches in 14 days1
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    LNZ Cherkasy FC travel as favourites: despite playing away, a win is rated at 38%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Double chance: Away or draw

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

FK Hirnyk Kryvyi Rih

  • awayPolessya Zhitomir0:1
  • homeFK Kolos Kovalivka2:2
  • awayFK Chornomorets Odessa0:1
  • homeFK Livyi Bereh1:1
  • awayFC Zorya Luhansk3:1

LNZ Cherkasy FC

  • awayFC Shakhtar Donetsk0:3
  • homeFC Obolon-Brovar Kyiv3:1
  • awayFC Dynamo Kyiv0:0
  • homeFC Veres Rivne0:1
  • homeFK Chornomorets Odessa2:0

Head to head

  • 04/05/26Ukrainian Premier League0:3
  • 09/28/25Ukrainian Premier League0:0
  • 04/26/25Ukrainian Premier League0:0
  • 10/26/24Ukrainian Premier League3:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
5FC Metalist 1925 Kharkiv640212:412
6FK Epitsentr Dunayivtsi72236:78
7LNZ Cherkasy FC72235:88
8FC Zorya Luhansk72237:118
9FK Livyi Bereh61414:37
10FK Bukovyna Chernivtsi71424:67
11FC Veres Rivne61324:56
12FK Hirnyk Kryvyi Rih61237:105
13FK Kolos Kovalivka61236:105
14FK Chornomorets Odessa61233:75

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.