All matches

Fakel Voronezh — Lokomotiv Moskva, Russian Premier League

Russia, Russian Premier League

Fakel Voronezh
0.9LDLLD
—
Lokomotiv Moskva
2.3DLWLL
Outcome probability
173250
Fakel Voronezh17%Draw32%Lokomotiv Moskva50%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Fakel Voronezh17%35%5.802.84-18.0
XDraw32%30%3.083.32+2.3
2Lokomotiv Moskva50%36%1.992.76+14.1

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes38%

ours 2.65book 1.94

No62%

ours 1.60book 1.79

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFakel VoronezhLokomotiv MoskvaCombined
Goals scored0.501.001.50
Conceded1.331.332.66
Corners9.36.57.9
Cards2.22.74.8
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Fakel VoronezhLokomotiv Moskva
    41.50%Possession49.80%
    16Table position14
    14Days of rest14
    0Matches in 14 days0
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Away from home, FK Lokomotiv Moskva still look stronger — an away win is rated at 50%. Bookmakers price this at 2.76.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total goals: Under 2.5

68%1.66
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Fakel Voronezh

  • awaySpartak Moscow0:1
  • homeBaltika Kaliningrad2:2
  • awayRostov1:3
  • homeZenit0:1
  • homeOrenburg0:0

Lokomotiv Moskva

  • homeKrylia Sovetov1:1
  • awayZenit1:2
  • awayBaltika Kaliningrad1:0
  • homeDinamo Moskva0:1
  • awayCSKA Moscow2:3

Head to head

  • 05/11/25Russian Premier League0:1
  • 11/09/24Russian Premier League1:2

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
12Akron Togliatti915311:188
13Rostov922510:178
14Lokomotiv Moskva91448:117
15Rodina Moskva912610:225
16Fakel Voronezh90366:133

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.