FK Epitsentr Dunayivtsi — FC Metalist 1925 Kharkiv, Ukrainian Premier League

Ukraine, Ukrainian Premier LeagueOctober 24 at 12:00 AM

FK Epitsentr Dunayivtsi

1.6LLDWD

—

FC Metalist 1925 Kharkiv

2.4WWWLL

Outcome probability

152659

FK Epitsentr Dunayivtsi15%Draw26%FC Metalist 1925 Kharkiv59%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1FK Epitsentr Dunayivtsi15%6.76—

XDraw26%3.80—

2FC Metalist 1925 Kharkiv59%1.70—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes34%

ours 2.97

No66%

ours 1.51

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFK Epitsentr DunayivtsiFC Metalist 1925 KharkivCombined

Goals scored0.501.672.17

Conceded0.830.000.83

Corners10.88.39.5

Cards2.50.73.2

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
FK Epitsentr DunayivtsiFC Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
6Table position5
5.4Days of rest4.6
51.30%Possession55.00%
2Matches in 14 days2
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
FC Metalist 1925 Kharkiv travel as favourites: despite playing away, a win is rated at 59%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price

Basebalance of probability and price

Total corners: Over 9.5

67%

High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context