FK Džiugas Telšiai — FK TransINVEST Vilnius, A Lyga

Lithuania, A LygaOctober 17 at 02:30 PM

FK Džiugas Telšiai

1.8LLDLL

—

FK TransINVEST Vilnius

1.9WWLWD

Outcome probability

282943

FK Džiugas Telšiai28%Draw29%FK TransINVEST Vilnius43%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1FK Džiugas Telšiai28%3.54—

XDraw29%3.51—

2FK TransINVEST Vilnius43%2.31—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes48%

ours 2.09

No52%

ours 1.92

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFK Džiugas TelšiaiFK TransINVEST VilniusCombined

Goals scored0.331.832.16

Conceded2.170.672.84

Corners10.08.29.1

Cards2.02.24.2

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
FK Džiugas TelšiaiFK TransINVEST Vilnius
6Table position3
48.00%Possession45.80%
14Days of rest14
0Matches in 14 days0
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Away from home, FK TransINVEST Vilnius still look stronger — an away win is rated at 43%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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