All matches

FK CSKA 1948 Sofia — PFC CSKA Sofia, First League

Bulgaria, First League

FK CSKA 1948 Sofia
2.6WWLWL
—
PFC CSKA Sofia
3.0DWWDW
Outcome probability
322940
FK CSKA 1948 Sofia32%Draw29%PFC CSKA Sofia40%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1FK CSKA 1948 Sofia32%3.17—
XDraw29%3.47—
2PFC CSKA Sofia40%2.52—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes48%

ours 2.07

No52%

ours 1.93

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFK CSKA 1948 SofiaPFC CSKA SofiaCombined
Goals scored1.671.833.50
Conceded0.831.001.83
Corners8.28.88.5
Cards1.22.23.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    FK CSKA 1948 SofiaPFC CSKA Sofia
    4Table position2
    58.00%Possession60.70%
    14Days of rest14
    0Matches in 14 days0
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    PFC CSKA Sofia travel as favourites: despite playing away, a win is rated at 40%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

First half total: Over 0.5

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

FK CSKA 1948 Sofia

  • awayPFC Slavia Sofia2:1
  • homeDunav 2010 Ruse2:1
  • awayPFC Levski Sofia0:1
  • homePFC Lokomotiv Plovdiv2:0
  • awayFK Septemvri Sofia0:1

PFC CSKA Sofia

  • awayPFC Lokomotiv Plovdiv1:1
  • awayFC Lokomotiv Sofia 19292:0
  • homeFK Arda Kardzhali4:1
  • awayPFC Spartak 1918 Varna1:1
  • homePFC Cherno More Varna3:1

Head to head

  • 05/13/26First League1:1
  • 05/08/26First League0:1
  • 02/14/26First League0:2
  • 08/24/25First League1:0
  • 12/07/24First League2:2

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1PFC Levski Sofia981021:425
2PFC CSKA Sofia1073024:724
3PFC Ludogorets 1945 Razgrad972016:723
4FK CSKA 1948 Sofia1071219:1022
5FK Arda Kardzhali1052315:1217
6FK Botev Plovdiv1051416:1416

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.