All matches

FK CSKA 1948 Sofia — FK Botev Plovdiv, First League

Bulgaria, First League

FK CSKA 1948 Sofia
2.6WWLWL
—
FK Botev Plovdiv
2.0WWWLL
Outcome probability
572419
FK CSKA 1948 Sofia57%Draw24%FK Botev Plovdiv19%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1FK CSKA 1948 Sofia57%1.75—
XDraw24%4.13—
2FK Botev Plovdiv19%5.32—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes53%

ours 1.90

No47%

ours 2.11

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFK CSKA 1948 SofiaFK Botev PlovdivCombined
Goals scored1.001.502.50
Conceded0.671.001.67
Corners7.88.28.0
Cards1.42.64.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    FK CSKA 1948 SofiaFK Botev Plovdiv
    4Table position6
    58.40%Possession45.80%
    12Days of rest13
    1Matches in 14 days1
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    FK CSKA 1948 Sofia look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 57%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total cards: Over 2.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

FK CSKA 1948 Sofia

  • awayPFC Slavia Sofia2:1
  • homeDunav 2010 Ruse2:1
  • awayPFC Levski Sofia0:1
  • homePFC Lokomotiv Plovdiv2:0
  • awayFK Septemvri Sofia0:1

FK Botev Plovdiv

  • awayFK Septemvri Sofia3:0
  • homePFC Lokomotiv Plovdiv2:0
  • awayFK Arda Kardzhali3:2
  • homePFC Levski Sofia1:3
  • awayPOFK Botev Vratsa0:1

Head to head

  • 03/08/26First League0:0
  • 09/25/25First League2:1
  • 03/16/25First League5:0
  • 09/29/24First League0:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
2PFC CSKA Sofia1073024:724
3PFC Ludogorets 1945 Razgrad972016:723
4FK CSKA 1948 Sofia1071219:1022
5FK Arda Kardzhali1052315:1217
6FK Botev Plovdiv1051416:1416
7PFC Slavia Sofia102539:811
8PFC Spartak 1918 Varna1024410:1510

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.