FK Chornomorets Odessa — FC Metalist 1925 Kharkiv, Ukrainian Premier League

Ukraine, Ukrainian Premier LeagueOctober 10 at 10:00 AM

FK Chornomorets Odessa

1.1DLDWL

—

FC Metalist 1925 Kharkiv

2.4WWWLL

Outcome probability

2171

FK Chornomorets Odessa8%Draw21%FC Metalist 1925 Kharkiv71%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1FK Chornomorets Odessa8%11.90—

XDraw21%4.87—

2FC Metalist 1925 Kharkiv71%1.41—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes22%

ours 4.61

No78%

ours 1.28

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFK Chornomorets OdessaFC Metalist 1925 KharkivCombined

Goals scored0.331.832.16

Conceded0.830.671.50

Corners7.68.07.8

Cards2.20.83.0

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
FK Chornomorets OdessaFC Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
14Table position5
45.60%Possession53.60%
14Days of rest14
0Matches in 14 days0
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
FC Metalist 1925 Kharkiv travel as favourites: despite playing away, a win is rated at 71%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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