All matches

FK Chornomorets Odessa — FC Karpaty Lviv, Ukrainian Premier League

Ukraine, Ukrainian Premier League

FK Chornomorets Odessa
1.1DLDWL
—
FC Karpaty Lviv
2.3DWLDW
Outcome probability
2267
FK Chornomorets Odessa11%Draw22%FC Karpaty Lviv67%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1FK Chornomorets Odessa11%9.22—
XDraw22%4.58—
2FC Karpaty Lviv67%1.49—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes35%

ours 2.88

No65%

ours 1.53

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFK Chornomorets OdessaFC Karpaty LvivCombined
Goals scored0.330.831.16
Conceded0.500.671.17
Corners7.39.08.1
Cards2.82.04.8
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    FK Chornomorets OdessaFC Karpaty Lviv
    14Table position3
    6.6Days of rest5.4
    44.00%Possession50.50%
    2Matches in 14 days2
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Away from home, FC Karpaty Lviv still look stronger — an away win is rated at 67%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

First half total: Over 0.5

70%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

FK Chornomorets Odessa

  • homeFC Obolon-Brovar Kyiv1:1
  • awayFC Shakhtar Donetsk0:2
  • homeFK Livyi Bereh0:0
  • homeFK Hirnyk Kryvyi Rih1:0
  • awayLNZ Cherkasy FC0:2

FC Karpaty Lviv

  • homeFC Veres Rivne1:1
  • awayFK Kolos Kovalivka2:0
  • homeFC Shakhtar Donetsk1:2
  • awayFK Livyi Bereh1:1
  • homeFK Bukovyna Chernivtsi3:0

Head to head

  • 03/30/25Ukrainian Premier League0:4
  • 09/21/24Ukrainian Premier League0:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1FC Shakhtar Donetsk760115:418
2Polessya Zhitomir760115:518
3FC Karpaty Lviv742115:514
4FC Dynamo Kyiv64119:513
5FC Metalist 1925 Kharkiv640212:412
6FK Epitsentr Dunayivtsi72236:78
7LNZ Cherkasy FC72235:88
8FC Zorya Luhansk72237:118
9FK Livyi Bereh61414:37
10FK Bukovyna Chernivtsi71424:67
11FC Veres Rivne61324:56
12FK Hirnyk Kryvyi Rih61237:105
13FK Kolos Kovalivka61236:105
14FK Chornomorets Odessa61233:75
15FC Obolon-Brovar Kyiv70432:124
16FK Kudrivka60244:162

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.