All matches

FK Bukovyna Chernivtsi — Polessya Zhitomir, Ukrainian Premier League

Ukraine, Ukrainian Premier League

FK Bukovyna Chernivtsi
1.8LDDWL
—
Polessya Zhitomir
2.7WWWWL
Outcome probability
2562
FK Bukovyna Chernivtsi13%Draw25%Polessya Zhitomir62%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1FK Bukovyna Chernivtsi13%7.54—
XDraw25%4.07—
2Polessya Zhitomir62%1.61—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes34%

ours 2.90

No66%

ours 1.53

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFK Bukovyna ChernivtsiPolessya ZhitomirCombined
Goals scored0.672.172.84
Conceded1.000.671.67
Corners13.08.510.8
Cards1.31.52.8
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    FK Bukovyna ChernivtsiPolessya Zhitomir
    10Table position2
    50.00%Possession56.50%
    14Days of rest14
    0Matches in 14 days0
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Away from home, Polessya Zhitomir still look stronger — an away win is rated at 62%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

First half total: Over 0.5

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

FK Bukovyna Chernivtsi

  • awayFC Metalist 1925 Kharkiv0:2
  • homeFC Zorya Luhansk1:1
  • awayFK Epitsentr Dunayivtsi0:0
  • homeFC Dynamo Kyiv3:0
  • awayFC Karpaty Lviv0:3

Polessya Zhitomir

  • homeFK Hirnyk Kryvyi Rih1:0
  • homeFK Livyi Bereh1:0
  • homeFK Kudrivka5:1
  • awayFC Shakhtar Donetsk2:0
  • homeFC Zorya Luhansk1:2

Head to head

No head-to-head matches on record.

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1FC Shakhtar Donetsk760115:418
2Polessya Zhitomir760115:518
3FC Karpaty Lviv742115:514
4FC Dynamo Kyiv64119:513
5FC Metalist 1925 Kharkiv640212:412
6FK Epitsentr Dunayivtsi72236:78
7LNZ Cherkasy FC72235:88
8FC Zorya Luhansk72237:118
9FK Livyi Bereh61414:37
10FK Bukovyna Chernivtsi71424:67
11FC Veres Rivne61324:56
12FK Hirnyk Kryvyi Rih61237:105

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.