All matches

FK Bukovyna Chernivtsi — FK Hirnyk Kryvyi Rih, Ukrainian Premier League

Ukraine, Ukrainian Premier League

FK Bukovyna Chernivtsi
1.8LDDWL
—
FK Hirnyk Kryvyi Rih
2.0LDLDW
Outcome probability
333235
FK Bukovyna Chernivtsi33%Draw32%FK Hirnyk Kryvyi Rih35%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1FK Bukovyna Chernivtsi33%3.02—
XDraw32%3.15—
2FK Hirnyk Kryvyi Rih35%2.85—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes46%

ours 2.18

No54%

ours 1.85

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFK Bukovyna ChernivtsiFK Hirnyk Kryvyi RihCombined
Goals scored0.670.331.00
Conceded0.500.671.17
Corners11.39.310.3
Cards1.51.73.2
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    FK Bukovyna ChernivtsiFK Hirnyk Kryvyi Rih
    10Table position12
    6.5Days of rest5.6
    45.80%Possession45.70%
    2Matches in 14 days2
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    FK Hirnyk Kryvyi Rih travel as favourites: despite playing away, a win is rated at 35%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total corners: Over 10.5

69%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

FK Bukovyna Chernivtsi

  • awayFC Metalist 1925 Kharkiv0:2
  • homeFC Zorya Luhansk1:1
  • awayFK Epitsentr Dunayivtsi0:0
  • homeFC Dynamo Kyiv3:0
  • awayFC Karpaty Lviv0:3

FK Hirnyk Kryvyi Rih

  • awayPolessya Zhitomir0:1
  • homeFK Kolos Kovalivka2:2
  • awayFK Chornomorets Odessa0:1
  • homeFK Livyi Bereh1:1
  • awayFC Zorya Luhansk3:1

Head to head

No head-to-head matches on record.

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
8FC Zorya Luhansk72237:118
9FK Livyi Bereh61414:37
10FK Bukovyna Chernivtsi71424:67
11FC Veres Rivne61324:56
12FK Hirnyk Kryvyi Rih61237:105
13FK Kolos Kovalivka61236:105
14FK Chornomorets Odessa61233:75

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.