All matches

FK Budućnost Podgorica — FK Sutjeska Nikšić, Montenegrin First League

Montenegro, Montenegrin First League

FK Budućnost Podgorica
2.4WWWLD
—
FK Sutjeska Nikšić
2.4WWWDW
Outcome probability
402832
FK Budućnost Podgorica40%Draw28%FK Sutjeska Nikšić32%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1FK Budućnost Podgorica40%2.47—
XDraw28%3.63—
2FK Sutjeska Nikšić32%3.13—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes46%

ours 2.15

No54%

ours 1.87

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFK Budućnost PodgoricaFK Sutjeska NikšićCombined
Goals scored1.671.673.34
Conceded0.830.171.00
Corners10.510.810.7
Cards2.71.74.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    FK Budućnost PodgoricaFK Sutjeska Nikšić
    5Table position4
    51.30%Possession50.50%
    14Days of rest14
    0Matches in 14 days0
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    FK Budućnost Podgorica look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 40%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total cards: Over 2.5

68%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

FK Budućnost Podgorica

  • homeOFK Petrovac4:1
  • awayFK Mladost Donja Gorica2:0
  • homeFK Jezero Plav3:0
  • awayFK Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj0:2
  • homeFK Bokelj Kotor0:0

FK Sutjeska Nikšić

  • awayFK Arsenal Tivat2:0
  • homeFK Dečić2:0
  • homeFK Mornar Bar1:0
  • awayOFK Petrovac0:0
  • homeFK Mladost Donja Gorica5:1

Head to head

  • 08/03/26Montenegrin First League1:0
  • 04/12/26Montenegrin First League0:2
  • 02/21/26Montenegrin First League2:1
  • 10/05/25Montenegrin First League2:0
  • 08/10/25Montenegrin First League0:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
2FK Dečić943210:715
3FK Bokelj Kotor94328:515
4FK Sutjeska Nikšić942311:714
5FK Budućnost Podgorica942311:714
6FK Mornar Bar93429:713
7FK Mladost Donja Gorica93158:1510

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.