All matches

FK Budućnost Podgorica — FK Arsenal Tivat, Montenegrin First League

Montenegro, Montenegrin First League

FK Budućnost Podgorica
2.4WWWLD
—
FK Arsenal Tivat
1.5LWLLL
Outcome probability
572419
FK Budućnost Podgorica57%Draw24%FK Arsenal Tivat19%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1FK Budućnost Podgorica57%1.75—
XDraw24%4.15—
2FK Arsenal Tivat19%5.38—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes38%

ours 2.65

No62%

ours 1.61

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFK Budućnost PodgoricaFK Arsenal TivatCombined
Goals scored1.500.672.17
Conceded0.501.502.00
Corners10.07.88.9
Cards3.02.35.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    FK Budućnost PodgoricaFK Arsenal Tivat
    5Table position10
    50.30%Possession48.00%
    6Days of rest6
    2Matches in 14 days2
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Home advantage and current form favour FK Budućnost Podgorica: a home win is rated at 57%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total cards: Over 2.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

FK Budućnost Podgorica

  • homeOFK Petrovac4:1
  • awayFK Mladost Donja Gorica2:0
  • homeFK Jezero Plav3:0
  • awayFK Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj0:2
  • homeFK Bokelj Kotor0:0

FK Arsenal Tivat

  • homeFK Sutjeska Nikšić0:2
  • awayOFK Petrovac2:1
  • homeFK Mladost Donja Gorica0:1
  • awayFK Jezero Plav2:5
  • homeFK Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj1:2

Head to head

  • 08/16/26Montenegrin First League0:0
  • 04/18/26Montenegrin First League0:2
  • 02/25/26Montenegrin First League0:1
  • 10/18/25Montenegrin First League4:2
  • 08/17/25Montenegrin First League0:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
3FK Bokelj Kotor94328:515
4FK Sutjeska Nikšić942311:714
5FK Budućnost Podgorica942311:714
6FK Mornar Bar93429:713
7FK Mladost Donja Gorica93158:1510
8FK Jezero Plav92349:159
9OFK Petrovac91537:98
10FK Arsenal Tivat91445:117

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.