All matches

FK Botev Plovdiv — PFC Slavia Sofia, First League

Bulgaria, First League

FK Botev Plovdiv
2.0WWWLL
—
PFC Slavia Sofia
1.6LDWLD
Outcome probability
502723
FK Botev Plovdiv50%Draw27%PFC Slavia Sofia23%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1FK Botev Plovdiv50%1.98—
XDraw27%3.76—
2PFC Slavia Sofia23%4.36—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes49%

ours 2.03

No51%

ours 1.97

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFK Botev PlovdivPFC Slavia SofiaCombined
Goals scored1.500.832.33
Conceded1.331.002.33
Corners8.28.28.2
Cards2.23.35.5
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    FK Botev PlovdivPFC Slavia Sofia
    6Table position7
    45.30%Possession47.70%
    14Days of rest14
    0Matches in 14 days0
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    FK Botev Plovdiv look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 50%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total goals: Over 1.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

FK Botev Plovdiv

  • awayFK Septemvri Sofia3:0
  • homePFC Lokomotiv Plovdiv2:0
  • awayFK Arda Kardzhali3:2
  • homePFC Levski Sofia1:3
  • awayPOFK Botev Vratsa0:1

PFC Slavia Sofia

  • homeFK CSKA 1948 Sofia1:2
  • homePFC Spartak 1918 Varna0:0
  • awayDunav 2010 Ruse1:0
  • homePFC Levski Sofia1:2
  • homeFK Septemvri Sofia1:1

Head to head

  • 03/20/26First League1:0
  • 10/18/25First League1:1
  • 03/03/25First League2:3
  • 10/19/24First League1:0

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
4FK CSKA 1948 Sofia1071219:1022
5FK Arda Kardzhali1052315:1217
6FK Botev Plovdiv1051416:1416
7PFC Slavia Sofia102539:811
8PFC Spartak 1918 Varna1024410:1510
9POFK Botev Vratsa102359:199

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.