All matches

FK Borac Banja Luka — Kuopion Palloseura, UEFA Europa Conference League

Europe, UEFA Europa Conference League

FK Borac Banja Luka
4.0WWWLW
—
Kuopion Palloseura
3.1WDDLW
Outcome probability
423028
FK Borac Banja Luka42%Draw30%Kuopion Palloseura28%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1FK Borac Banja Luka42%2.39—
XDraw30%3.32—
2Kuopion Palloseura28%3.57—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes44%

ours 2.26

No56%

ours 1.80

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFK Borac Banja LukaKuopion PalloseuraCombined
Goals scored1.000.331.33
Conceded0.500.000.50
Corners6.312.59.4
Cards1.71.02.7
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    FK Borac Banja LukaKuopion Palloseura
    9Table position65
    5.8Days of rest4.3
    55.30%Possession52.00%
    3Matches in 14 days3
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    FK Borac Banja Luka look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 42%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Double chance: No draw

70%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

FK Borac Banja Luka

  • awayNK Široki Brijeg3:2
  • awayFK Sloga Doboj2:1
  • homeHŠK Zrinjski Mostar1:0
  • awayFK Sarajevo0:1
  • homeFK Željezničar Sarajevo2:0

Kuopion Palloseura

  • awayVaasan Palloseura2:0
  • homeHelsingin Jalkapalloklubi0:0
  • awayIF Gnistan1:1
  • awayFC Inter Turku0:1
  • homeShamrock Rovers FC1:0

Head to head

No head-to-head matches on record.

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
7Sporting Braga64208:014
8Riga FC642012:614
9FK Borac Banja Luka641114:713
10FC Inter Turku834111:1013
11KF Drita633014:512
12FC Midtjylland440011:312
13FK Jablonec 64029:512
14Panathinaikos FC633011:812
15KS Dinamo Tirana832315:911
16KS Raków Częstochowa632112:611
17SK Brann632113:911
18HNK Hajduk Split431014:610
19KF Shkendija631211:510
20FK Rīgas Futbola skola631210:710
21Motherwell FC631210:810
22FK Austria Wien63128:610
23KAA Gent62405:310
24HNK Rijeka63125:710
25Tallinna FC Levadia430113:49
26Apollon Limassol430110:49
27FC Maxline Vitebsk43017:39
28FK Auda Riga43018:79
29VMFD Žalgiris Vilnius630314:169
30Inter Club d'Escaldes42208:28
31Hapoel Tel Aviv FC62227:58
32FC Sion622214:138
33Hibernian FC62228:78
34Tampereen Ilves62226:58
35NSÍ Runavík62228:98
36Paide Linnameeskond62227:88
37FC Twente421113:57
38Helsingin Jalkapalloklubi42119:37
39FC Vaduz42119:47
40Zira IK42117:27
41Pyunik FC42114:17
42UMF Stjarnan42117:57
43Tromsø IL42117:57
44KF Ballkani42117:67
45FC Dinamo Minsk62135:57
46Bohemian FC62138:97
47FC Dinamo Tbilisi42118:97
48Nõmme Kalju FC42117:87
49DAC 1904 Dunajská Streda42117:97
50SC Freiburg22007:26
51FC Sankt Gallen 1879420210:66
52AS Monaco FC22007:36
53Ujvara e Malishevës42029:66
54GKS Katowice42026:66
55Beitar Jerusalem FC42026:66
56Qarabağ Ağdam FK42024:56
57Don Denis FC Santa Coloma42027:96
58FK Liepāja42024:66
59FC UNA Strassen42023:56
60M-Perruquers Atlètic Club d'Escaldes42024:86
61ETO FC41218:55
62FC Artsakh41216:65
63Brighton & Hove Albion FC21104:04
64Paphos FC21105:34
65Kuopion Palloseura21102:14
66Atalanta Bergamasca Calcio21101:04
67Shelbourne FC41129:94

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.