All matches

FK Arsenal Tivat — FK Mornar Bar, Montenegrin First League

Montenegro, Montenegrin First League

FK Arsenal Tivat
1.5LWLLL
—
FK Mornar Bar
2.3DLLWD
Outcome probability
282845
FK Arsenal Tivat28%Draw28%FK Mornar Bar45%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1FK Arsenal Tivat28%3.63—
XDraw28%3.59—
2FK Mornar Bar45%2.24—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes38%

ours 2.63

No62%

ours 1.61

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFK Arsenal TivatFK Mornar BarCombined
Goals scored0.830.671.50
Conceded1.830.672.50
Corners8.411.09.7
Cards2.41.23.6
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    FK Arsenal TivatFK Mornar Bar
    10Table position6
    48.00%Possession44.80%
    8Days of rest8
    1Matches in 14 days1
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    FK Mornar Bar travel as favourites: despite playing away, a win is rated at 45%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Second half total: Under 1.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

FK Arsenal Tivat

  • homeFK Sutjeska Nikšić0:2
  • awayOFK Petrovac2:1
  • homeFK Mladost Donja Gorica0:1
  • awayFK Jezero Plav2:5
  • homeFK Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj1:2

FK Mornar Bar

  • awayFK Dečić1:1
  • homeFK Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj0:1
  • awayFK Sutjeska Nikšić0:1
  • homeFK Bokelj Kotor2:0
  • awayOFK Petrovac1:1

Head to head

  • 08/07/26Montenegrin First League0:0
  • 04/12/26Montenegrin First League0:1
  • 02/21/26Montenegrin First League2:1
  • 10/08/25Montenegrin First League0:1
  • 08/10/25Montenegrin First League2:2

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
4FK Sutjeska Nikšić942311:714
5FK Budućnost Podgorica942311:714
6FK Mornar Bar93429:713
7FK Mladost Donja Gorica93158:1510
8FK Jezero Plav92349:159
9OFK Petrovac91537:98
10FK Arsenal Tivat91445:117

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.