All matches

FK Arsenal Tivat — FK Bokelj Kotor, Montenegrin First League

Montenegro, Montenegrin First League

FK Arsenal Tivat
1.5LWLLL
—
FK Bokelj Kotor
1.5WDWLD
Outcome probability
372933
FK Arsenal Tivat37%Draw29%FK Bokelj Kotor33%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1FK Arsenal Tivat37%2.67—
XDraw29%3.43—
2FK Bokelj Kotor33%2.99—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes35%

ours 2.89

No65%

ours 1.53

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFK Arsenal TivatFK Bokelj KotorCombined
Goals scored0.331.001.33
Conceded0.670.331.00
Corners9.06.07.5
Cards2.01.03.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    FK Arsenal TivatFK Bokelj Kotor
    10Table position3
    48.70%Possession44.70%
    4Days of rest4
    2Matches in 14 days2
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    FK Arsenal Tivat look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 37%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Double chance: Home or draw

70%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

FK Arsenal Tivat

  • homeFK Sutjeska Nikšić0:2
  • awayOFK Petrovac2:1
  • homeFK Mladost Donja Gorica0:1
  • awayFK Jezero Plav2:5
  • homeFK Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj1:2

FK Bokelj Kotor

  • homeFK Mladost Donja Gorica3:0
  • awayFK Jezero Plav1:1
  • homeFK Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj2:1
  • awayFK Mornar Bar0:2
  • awayFK Budućnost Podgorica0:0

Head to head

  • 08/23/26Montenegrin First League0:0
  • 05/16/26Montenegrin First League0:3
  • 03/15/26Montenegrin First League1:0
  • 11/22/25Montenegrin First League0:2
  • 09/17/25Montenegrin First League2:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1FK Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj951315:1016
2FK Dečić943210:715
3FK Bokelj Kotor94328:515
4FK Sutjeska Nikšić942311:714
5FK Budućnost Podgorica942311:714
6FK Mornar Bar93429:713
7FK Mladost Donja Gorica93158:1510
8FK Jezero Plav92349:159
9OFK Petrovac91537:98
10FK Arsenal Tivat91445:117

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.