All matches

Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk — Dinamo Brest, Vysheyshaya Liga

Belarus, Vysheyshaya Liga

Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk
1.4LDDLL
—
Dinamo Brest
2.6WWWLD
Outcome probability
162262
Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk16%Draw22%Dinamo Brest62%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk16%19%6.145.35-2.4
XDraw22%24%4.574.12-2.4
2Dinamo Brest62%62%1.621.62-0.0

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes49%

ours 2.06book 1.95

No51%

ours 1.95book 1.78

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricArsenal DzyarzhynskDinamo BrestCombined
Goals scored0.831.502.33
Conceded2.501.333.83
Corners7.88.38.1
Cards1.81.73.5
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Arsenal DzyarzhynskDinamo Brest
    12Table position4
    39.70%Possession47.20%
    14Days of rest14
    0Matches in 14 days0
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Away from home, FC Dinamo Brest still look stronger — an away win is rated at 62%. Bookmakers price this at 1.62.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total goals: Under 3.5

70%1.31
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk

  • awayVitebsk1:5
  • homeBaranovichi0:0
  • awayIsloch1:1
  • homeTorpedo Zhodino2:4
  • awayBelshina Bobruisk0:2

Dinamo Brest

  • homeDnepr Mogilev4:2
  • awayDinamo Minsk1:0
  • homeBATE Borisov1:0
  • homeVitebsk1:3
  • awayBaranovichi1:1

Head to head

  • 05/23/26Vysheyshaya Liga0:3
  • 08/02/25Vysheyshaya Liga1:1
  • 03/16/25Vysheyshaya Liga1:1
  • 09/22/24Vysheyshaya Liga1:2
  • 05/04/24Vysheyshaya Liga0:2

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
2Vitebsk21128142:1744
3Dinamo Minsk21134437:1643
4Dinamo Brest23124738:2340
5Gomel23116633:1839
6Neman Grodno22114726:2037
7Vitebsk23106728:2136
8Minsk23104930:2834
9Torpedo Zhodino2276928:2927
10Slavia-Mozyr2267923:2625
11Baranovichi23671024:3825
12Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk23581024:4123
13Belshina Bobruisk22561122:3621
14BATE Borisov22391016:2718

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.