FK Akron Togliatti — FK Dinamo Moskva, Russian Premier League

Russia, Russian Premier LeagueOctober 24 at 09:45 AM

FK Akron Togliatti

1.2WDDDL

—

FK Dinamo Moskva

2.6WWWWW

Outcome probability

142461

FK Akron Togliatti14%Draw24%FK Dinamo Moskva61%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1FK Akron Togliatti14%6.96—

XDraw24%4.14—

2FK Dinamo Moskva61%1.63—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes61%

ours 1.64

No39%

ours 2.57

Over 2.5 goals

This market opens with a subscription.

See plans

Over 9.5 corners

This market opens with a subscription.

See plans

Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFK Akron TogliattiFK Dinamo MoskvaCombined

Goals scored1.171.172.34

Conceded0.830.171.00

Corners9.06.07.5

Cards4.51.56.0

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

Start free Plans

Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
FK Akron TogliattiFK Dinamo Moskva
12Table position4
1Matches in 14 days2
48.80%Possession57.80%
6.8Days of rest5.9
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Away from home, FK Dinamo Moskva still look stronger — an away win is rated at 61%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Start free Plans