FH Hafnarfjördur — Thór Akureyri, Úrvalsdeild

Iceland, ÚrvalsdeildOctober 24 at 02:00 PM

FH Hafnarfjördur

1.8WWLWD

—

Thór Akureyri

1.7LLWWL

Outcome probability

632017

FH Hafnarfjördur63%Draw20%Thór Akureyri17%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1FH Hafnarfjördur63%1.59—

XDraw20%4.94—

2Thór Akureyri17%5.90—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes46%

ours 2.19

No54%

ours 1.84

Over 2.5 goals

This market opens with a subscription.

See plans

Over 9.5 corners

This market opens with a subscription.

See plans

Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFH HafnarfjördurThór AkureyriCombined

Goals scored1.670.502.17

Conceded0.671.171.84

Corners10.812.311.5

Cards2.33.35.5

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

Start free Plans

Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
FH HafnarfjördurThór Akureyri
9Table position11
48.00%Possession41.30%
7Days of rest7
2Matches in 14 days2
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
FH Hafnarfjördur look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 63%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Start free Plans

More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price

Basebalance of probability and price

Total goals: Under 3.5

71%

High variancelow probability, high price

Two more scenarios — with a subscription

Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

Start free Plans

Form and context