All matches

Fenerbahçe — Alanyaspor, Süper Lig

Turkey, Süper Lig

Fenerbahçe
3.7WDDLW
—
Alanyaspor
1.8WDWLW
Outcome probability
7616
Fenerbahçe76%Draw16%Alanyaspor9%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Fenerbahçe76%1.32—
XDraw16%6.37—
2Alanyaspor9%11.59—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes52%

ours 1.91

No48%

ours 2.09

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFenerbahçeAlanyasporCombined
Goals scored1.671.172.84
Conceded0.500.831.33
Corners9.810.09.9
Cards3.00.83.8
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    FenerbahçeAlanyaspor
    2.9Days of rest7.1
    2Matches in 14 days1
    53.80%Possession41.00%
    6Table position5
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Home advantage and current form favour Fenerbahçe: a home win is rated at 76%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Most corners: Home

68%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Fenerbahçe

  • homeEyüp Spor Kulübü8:0
  • awayGaziantep FK0:0
  • homeAS Roma1:1
  • homeBeşiktaş1:2
  • awaySamsunspor2:0

Alanyaspor

  • awayÇorum Belediye Spor Kulübü2:1
  • homeGöztepe2:2
  • awayÇaykur Rizespor1:0
  • awayEyüp Spor Kulübü1:2
  • homeBeşiktaş1:0

Head to head

  • 01/18/26Süper Lig3:2
  • 09/17/25Süper Lig2:2
  • 02/09/25Süper Lig2:0
  • 08/30/24Süper Lig3:0

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
3Beşiktaş640214:712
4Kocaelispor Kulübü64027:412
5Alanyaspor63218:611
6Fenerbahçe631216:610
7Trabzonspor631213:510
8Kasimpasa62407:510

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.