All matches

FC Zorya Luhansk — FK Chornomorets Odessa, Ukrainian Premier League

Ukraine, Ukrainian Premier League

FC Zorya Luhansk
2.0LDDLW
—
FK Chornomorets Odessa
1.1DLDWL
Outcome probability
602514
FC Zorya Luhansk60%Draw25%FK Chornomorets Odessa14%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1FC Zorya Luhansk60%1.66—
XDraw25%3.92—
2FK Chornomorets Odessa14%7.00—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes35%

ours 2.82

No65%

ours 1.55

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFC Zorya LuhanskFK Chornomorets OdessaCombined
Goals scored0.670.331.00
Conceded1.330.832.16
Corners9.67.68.6
Cards2.42.24.6
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    FC Zorya LuhanskFK Chornomorets Odessa
    8Table position14
    5Days of rest7
    42.40%Possession45.60%
    1Matches in 14 days1
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Home advantage and current form favour FC Zorya Luhansk: a home win is rated at 60%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Second half total: Over 0.5

70%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

FC Zorya Luhansk

  • homeFC Dynamo Kyiv0:2
  • awayFK Bukovyna Chernivtsi1:1
  • awayFC Veres Rivne1:1
  • homeFC Metalist 1925 Kharkiv0:3
  • awayPolessya Zhitomir2:1

FK Chornomorets Odessa

  • homeFC Obolon-Brovar Kyiv1:1
  • awayFC Shakhtar Donetsk0:2
  • homeFK Livyi Bereh0:0
  • homeFK Hirnyk Kryvyi Rih1:0
  • awayLNZ Cherkasy FC0:2

Head to head

  • 12/14/24Ukrainian Premier League2:1
  • 08/10/24Ukrainian Premier League1:0

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
6FK Epitsentr Dunayivtsi72236:78
7LNZ Cherkasy FC72235:88
8FC Zorya Luhansk72237:118
9FK Livyi Bereh61414:37
10FK Bukovyna Chernivtsi71424:67
11FC Veres Rivne61324:56
12FK Hirnyk Kryvyi Rih61237:105
13FK Kolos Kovalivka61236:105
14FK Chornomorets Odessa61233:75
15FC Obolon-Brovar Kyiv70432:124
16FK Kudrivka60244:162

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.