All matches

FC Volendam — SBV Vitesse, Eerste Divisie

Netherlands, Eerste Divisie

FC Volendam
1.9WLWLW
—
SBV Vitesse
1.9LWLWW
Outcome probability
542025
FC Volendam54%Draw20%SBV Vitesse25%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1FC Volendam54%1.84—
XDraw20%4.91—
2SBV Vitesse25%3.98—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes70%

ours 1.42

No30%

ours 3.37

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFC VolendamSBV VitesseCombined
Goals scored2.501.504.00
Conceded2.001.003.00
Corners9.811.210.5
Cards1.42.03.4
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    FC VolendamSBV Vitesse
    11Table position9
    50.60%Possession45.60%
    6Days of rest6.1
    2Matches in 14 days2
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Home advantage and current form favour FC Volendam: a home win is rated at 54%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total corners: Under 11.5

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

FC Volendam

  • homeVVV Venlo3:2
  • awayAlkmaar Zaanstreek II1:4
  • homeFC Den Bosch2:0
  • awayFC Emmen3:5
  • homeFC Dordrecht6:1

SBV Vitesse

  • awayHeracles Almelo0:2
  • homePSV Eindhoven II3:1
  • awaySV Roda JC0:1
  • homeFC Oss2:1
  • awayFC Den Bosch4:1

Head to head

  • 01/17/25Eerste Divisie4:0
  • 10/04/24Eerste Divisie2:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
7RKC Waalwijk834118:1113
8Alkmaar Zaanstreek II941422:1713
9SBV Vitesse841313:1113
10NAC Breda841317:1713
11FC Volendam840420:1612
12PSV Eindhoven II933314:1612
13FC Eindhoven831413:1710

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.