FC Utrecht II — SV Roda JC, Eerste Divisie

Netherlands, Eerste DivisieOctober 19 at 06:00 PM

FC Utrecht II

0.8LWWDL

—

SV Roda JC

1.9WDWDD

Outcome probability

322345

FC Utrecht II32%Draw23%SV Roda JC45%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1FC Utrecht II32%3.13—

XDraw23%4.30—

2SV Roda JC45%2.23—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes52%

ours 1.93

No48%

ours 2.08

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFC Utrecht IISV Roda JCCombined

Goals scored1.830.672.50

Conceded1.330.171.50

Corners10.88.09.4

Cards1.81.33.0

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
FC Utrecht IISV Roda JC
17Table position5
46.00%Possession48.50%
10Days of rest10
1Matches in 14 days1
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
SV Roda JC travel as favourites: despite playing away, a win is rated at 45%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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