All matches

FC Shakhtar Donetsk — FC Zorya Luhansk, Ukrainian Premier League

Ukraine, Ukrainian Premier League

FC Shakhtar Donetsk
3.7WWDWL
—
FC Zorya Luhansk
2.0LDDLW
Outcome probability
7915
FC Shakhtar Donetsk79%Draw15%FC Zorya Luhansk7%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1FC Shakhtar Donetsk79%1.27—
XDraw15%6.81—
2FC Zorya Luhansk7%14.95—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes46%

ours 2.16

No54%

ours 1.86

Over 2.5 goals

This market opens with a subscription.

See plans

Over 9.5 corners

This market opens with a subscription.

See plans

Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFC Shakhtar DonetskFC Zorya LuhanskCombined
Goals scored0.830.331.16
Conceded0.001.171.17
Corners5.59.37.4
Cards1.02.83.8
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

Start freePlans

Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    FC Shakhtar DonetskFC Zorya Luhansk
    1Table position8
    2.2Days of rest6.6
    72.00%Possession44.30%
    3Matches in 14 days2
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Home advantage and current form favour FC Shakhtar Donetsk: a home win is rated at 79%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

    The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription

    Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

    Start freePlans

More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

First half total: Over 0.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

Two more scenarios — with a subscription

Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

Start freePlans

Form and context

FC Shakhtar Donetsk

  • homeLNZ Cherkasy FC3:0
  • homeFK Chornomorets Odessa2:0
  • awayPSV Eindhoven1:1
  • awayFC Karpaty Lviv2:1
  • homePolessya Zhitomir0:2

FC Zorya Luhansk

  • homeFC Dynamo Kyiv0:2
  • awayFK Bukovyna Chernivtsi1:1
  • awayFC Veres Rivne1:1
  • homeFC Metalist 1925 Kharkiv0:3
  • awayPolessya Zhitomir2:1

Head to head

  • 04/23/26Ukrainian Premier League2:1
  • 09/22/25Ukrainian Premier League1:0
  • 05/09/25Ukrainian Premier League0:0
  • 11/10/24Ukrainian Premier League3:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1FC Shakhtar Donetsk760115:418
2Polessya Zhitomir760115:518
3FC Karpaty Lviv742115:514
4FC Dynamo Kyiv64119:513
5FC Metalist 1925 Kharkiv640212:412
6FK Epitsentr Dunayivtsi72236:78
7LNZ Cherkasy FC72235:88
8FC Zorya Luhansk72237:118
9FK Livyi Bereh61414:37
10FK Bukovyna Chernivtsi71424:67

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription

Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

PlansSign in

Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.