FC Rapid Bucureşti — FC Corvinul Hunedoara, Liga I

Romania, Liga IOctober 17 at 12:00 AM

FC Rapid Bucureşti

2.5WWWDW

—

FC Corvinul Hunedoara

1.7WLLDD

Outcome probability

552718

FC Rapid Bucureşti55%Draw27%FC Corvinul Hunedoara18%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1FC Rapid Bucureşti55%1.81—

XDraw27%3.77—

2FC Corvinul Hunedoara18%5.50—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes41%

ours 2.46

No59%

ours 1.68

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFC Rapid BucureştiFC Corvinul HunedoaraCombined

Goals scored1.500.672.17

Conceded0.501.001.50

Corners9.010.89.9

Cards2.03.25.2

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
FC Rapid BucureştiFC Corvinul Hunedoara
2Table position7
4.3Days of rest7.4
51.40%Possession46.40%
1Matches in 14 days1
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Home advantage and current form favour FC Rapid Bucureşti: a home win is rated at 55%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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