FC Oss — Helmond Sport, Eerste Divisie

Netherlands, Eerste DivisieOctober 9 at 06:00 PM

FC Oss

1.2LWLLW

—

Helmond Sport

1.1LLWWL

Outcome probability

462331

FC Oss46%Draw23%Helmond Sport31%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1FC Oss46%2.18—

XDraw23%4.28—

2Helmond Sport31%3.25—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes49%

ours 2.05

No51%

ours 1.95

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFC OssHelmond SportCombined

Goals scored1.171.672.84

Conceded1.171.672.84

Corners11.09.810.4

Cards2.22.64.8

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
FC OssHelmond Sport
20Table position14
38.60%Possession47.80%
6.1Days of rest7
2Matches in 14 days2
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Home advantage and current form favour FC Oss: a home win is rated at 46%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
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