FC Oss — AFC Ajax II, Eerste Divisie

Netherlands, Eerste DivisieOctober 23 at 06:00 PM

FC Oss

1.2LWLLW

—

AFC Ajax II

0.8DLLWD

Outcome probability

492328

FC Oss49%Draw23%AFC Ajax II28%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1FC Oss49%2.04—

XDraw23%4.44—

2AFC Ajax II28%3.51—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes52%

ours 1.91

No48%

ours 2.09

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFC OssAFC Ajax IICombined

Goals scored0.670.331.00

Conceded0.671.332.00

Corners10.712.011.3

Cards2.32.54.8

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
FC OssAFC Ajax II
7Days of rest4
35.30%Possession55.80%
20Table position15
2Matches in 14 days2
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
FC Oss look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 49%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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