All matches

FC Obolon-Brovar Kyiv — FK Hirnyk Kryvyi Rih, Ukrainian Premier League

Ukraine, Ukrainian Premier League

FC Obolon-Brovar Kyiv
1.3DLLDD
—
FK Hirnyk Kryvyi Rih
2.0LDLDW
Outcome probability
182754
FC Obolon-Brovar Kyiv18%Draw27%FK Hirnyk Kryvyi Rih54%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1FC Obolon-Brovar Kyiv18%5.43—
XDraw27%3.68—
2FK Hirnyk Kryvyi Rih54%1.84—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes48%

ours 2.09

No52%

ours 1.92

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFC Obolon-Brovar KyivFK Hirnyk Kryvyi RihCombined
Goals scored0.331.001.33
Conceded1.501.002.50
Corners9.78.08.8
Cards3.01.64.6
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    FC Obolon-Brovar KyivFK Hirnyk Kryvyi Rih
    15Table position12
    44.50%Possession39.40%
    14Days of rest14
    0Matches in 14 days0
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Away from home, FK Hirnyk Kryvyi Rih still look stronger — an away win is rated at 54%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total corners: Under 11.5

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

FC Obolon-Brovar Kyiv

  • awayFK Chornomorets Odessa1:1
  • awayLNZ Cherkasy FC1:3
  • awayFC Metalist 1925 Kharkiv0:5
  • awayFK Kolos Kovalivka0:0
  • awayFK Kudrivka0:0

FK Hirnyk Kryvyi Rih

  • awayPolessya Zhitomir0:1
  • homeFK Kolos Kovalivka2:2
  • awayFK Chornomorets Odessa0:1
  • homeFK Livyi Bereh1:1
  • awayFC Zorya Luhansk3:1

Head to head

  • 03/07/26Ukrainian Premier League0:0
  • 08/30/25Ukrainian Premier League1:2
  • 05/17/25Ukrainian Premier League0:1
  • 11/24/24Ukrainian Premier League0:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
10FK Bukovyna Chernivtsi71424:67
11FC Veres Rivne61324:56
12FK Hirnyk Kryvyi Rih61237:105
13FK Kolos Kovalivka61236:105
14FK Chornomorets Odessa61233:75
15FC Obolon-Brovar Kyiv70432:124
16FK Kudrivka60244:162

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.