FC Obolon-Brovar Kyiv — FC Veres Rivne, Ukrainian Premier League

Ukraine, Ukrainian Premier LeagueOctober 16 at 12:30 PM

FC Obolon-Brovar Kyiv

1.3DLLDD

—

FC Veres Rivne

1.5DDWDL

Outcome probability

293239

FC Obolon-Brovar Kyiv29%Draw32%FC Veres Rivne39%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1FC Obolon-Brovar Kyiv29%3.48—

XDraw32%3.09—

2FC Veres Rivne39%2.57—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes38%

ours 2.63

No62%

ours 1.61

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFC Obolon-Brovar KyivFC Veres RivneCombined

Goals scored0.330.500.83

Conceded1.500.331.83

Corners8.86.37.5

Cards3.22.55.7

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
FC Obolon-Brovar KyivFC Veres Rivne
1Matches in 14 days2
15Table position11
6Days of rest7
45.80%Possession44.50%
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
FC Veres Rivne travel as favourites: despite playing away, a win is rated at 39%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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