Both teams to score
Yes49%
ours 2.02
No51%
ours 1.98
All matches
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FC Nordsjælland — PFC CSKA Sofia, UEFA Europa Conference League
Europe, UEFA Europa Conference League
FC Nordsjælland
2.6LWDLWPFC CSKA Sofia
3.0DWWDWOutcome probability
602316
FC Nordsjælland60%Draw23%PFC CSKA Sofia16%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1FC Nordsjælland1.66—
XDraw4.30—
2PFC CSKA Sofia6.07—
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricFC NordsjællandPFC CSKA SofiaCombined
Goals scored0.831.332.16
Conceded1.000.501.50
Corners7.39.88.5
Cards1.31.52.8
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.
- 1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
FC NordsjællandPFC CSKA Sofia4.2Days of rest73Matches in 14 days251.70%Possession61.30% - 2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Home advantage and current form favour FC Nordsjælland: a home win is rated at 60%.
Most likely scorelines:…
- 3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pickRisky pickThe full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total goals: Under 3.5
71%
Form and context
FC Nordsjælland
- awayViborg FF1:4
- homeAarhus Gymnastikforening2:0
- awayFC Midtjylland2:2
- awayFC København0:2
- homeBrøndby IF3:1
PFC CSKA Sofia
- awayPFC Lokomotiv Plovdiv1:1
- awayFC Lokomotiv Sofia 19292:0
- homeFK Arda Kardzhali4:1
- awayPFC Spartak 1918 Varna1:1
- homePFC Cherno More Varna3:1
Head to head
No head-to-head matches on record.
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1
AFC Ajax651022:1016
AFC Ajax651022:10162FC Nordsjælland650117:315
FC Nordsjælland650117:3153
FK Partizan Beograd650113:515
FK Partizan Beograd650113:5154
SK Rapid Wien642019:814
SK Rapid Wien642019:814