FC Nordsjælland — Odense BK, Superliga

Denmark, SuperligaOctober 9 at 05:00 PM

FC Nordsjælland

2.6LWDLW

—

Odense BK

1.7DWLDD

Outcome probability

582319

FC Nordsjælland58%Draw23%Odense BK19%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1FC Nordsjælland58%1.72—

XDraw23%4.33—

2Odense BK19%5.32—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes58%

ours 1.73

No42%

ours 2.38

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFC NordsjællandOdense BKCombined

Goals scored1.831.173.00

Conceded1.832.003.83

Corners6.711.79.2

Cards2.02.74.7

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
FC NordsjællandOdense BK
4Table position9
51.80%Possession53.80%
14Days of rest14
0Matches in 14 days0
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Home advantage and current form favour FC Nordsjælland: a home win is rated at 58%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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