All matches

Naftan Novopolotsk — Belshina Bobruisk, Vysheyshaya Liga

Belarus, Vysheyshaya Liga

Naftan Novopolotsk
0.6WDLLL
—
Belshina Bobruisk
1.6WDDDL
Outcome probability
352539
Naftan Novopolotsk35%Draw25%Belshina Bobruisk39%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Naftan Novopolotsk35%34%2.842.96+1.4
XDraw25%28%3.943.63-2.2
2Belshina Bobruisk39%44%2.542.30-4.1

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes55%

ours 1.83book 1.81

No45%

ours 2.21book 1.91

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricNaftan NovopolotskBelshina BobruiskCombined
Goals scored0.671.332.00
Conceded2.330.833.16
Corners12.310.511.4
Cards1.51.53.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Naftan NovopolotskBelshina Bobruisk
    16Table position13
    41.80%Possession42.80%
    14Days of rest14
    0Matches in 14 days0
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Away from home, FC Belshina Bobruisk still look stronger — an away win is rated at 39%. Bookmakers price this at 2.30.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total goals: Under 3.5

71%1.30
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Naftan Novopolotsk

  • awaySlavia-Mozyr1:0
  • awayBATE Borisov2:2
  • homeMinsk0:3
  • awayDinamo Minsk1:5
  • awayVitebsk0:2

Belshina Bobruisk

  • homeMinsk2:0
  • awayVitebsk1:1
  • homeNeman Grodno2:2
  • awayVitebsk1:1
  • awayGomel0:1

Head to head

  • 05/23/26Vysheyshaya Liga1:5

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
11Baranovichi23671024:3825
12Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk23581024:4123
13Belshina Bobruisk22561122:3621
14BATE Borisov22391016:2718
15Dnepr Mogilev232101120:3616
16Naftan Novopolotsk23351520:5414

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.