All matches

Minsk — Torpedo Zhodino, Vysheyshaya Liga

Belarus, Vysheyshaya Liga

Minsk
2.0LWWLL
—
Torpedo Zhodino
2.3LLLWD
Outcome probability
392536
Minsk39%Draw25%Torpedo Zhodino36%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Minsk39%42%2.542.39-2.3
XDraw25%28%4.073.60-3.2
2Torpedo Zhodino36%35%2.782.82+0.6

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes58%

ours 1.73book 1.77

No42%

ours 2.36book 1.96

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricMinskTorpedo ZhodinoCombined
Goals scored1.000.831.83
Conceded1.172.503.67
Corners11.87.79.8
Cards1.81.73.5
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    MinskTorpedo Zhodino
    8Table position9
    51.00%Possession49.50%
    14Days of rest14
    0Matches in 14 days0
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Home advantage and current form favour FC Minsk: a home win is rated at 39%. Bookmakers price this at 2.39.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total goals: Under 3.5

68%1.30
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Minsk

  • awayBelshina Bobruisk0:2
  • homeSlavia-Mozyr1:0
  • awayNaftan Novopolotsk3:0
  • awayBATE Borisov1:2
  • homeVitebsk0:1

Torpedo Zhodino

  • awayVitebsk0:6
  • awayNeman Grodno0:1
  • homeGomel1:2
  • awayArsenal Dzyarzhynsk4:2
  • homeDnepr Mogilev0:0

Head to head

  • 05/23/26Vysheyshaya Liga0:3
  • 11/02/25Vysheyshaya Liga1:0
  • 06/14/25Vysheyshaya Liga1:5
  • 09/20/24Vysheyshaya Liga2:2
  • 05/03/24Vysheyshaya Liga1:2

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
6Neman Grodno22114726:2037
7Vitebsk23106728:2136
8Minsk23104930:2834
9Torpedo Zhodino2276928:2927
10Slavia-Mozyr2267923:2625
11Baranovichi23671024:3825

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.