FC Metalist 1925 Kharkiv — FK Livyi Bereh, Ukrainian Premier League

Ukraine, Ukrainian Premier LeagueOctober 19 at 10:00 AM

FC Metalist 1925 Kharkiv

2.4WWWLL

—

FK Livyi Bereh

1.3WLDDD

Outcome probability

6823

FC Metalist 1925 Kharkiv68%Draw23%FK Livyi Bereh9%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1FC Metalist 1925 Kharkiv68%1.48—

XDraw23%4.35—

2FK Livyi Bereh9%10.56—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes17%

ours 5.74

No83%

ours 1.21

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFC Metalist 1925 KharkivFK Livyi BerehCombined

Goals scored1.670.672.34

Conceded0.170.500.67

Corners8.510.09.3

Cards0.81.42.1

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
FC Metalist 1925 KharkivFK Livyi Bereh
5Table position9
9Days of rest7
52.50%Possession48.20%
1Matches in 14 days1
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Home advantage and current form favour FC Metalist 1925 Kharkiv: a home win is rated at 68%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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