FC Meshakhte Tkibuli — FC Iberia 1999 Tbilisi, Erovnuli Liga

Georgia, Erovnuli LigaOctober 10 at 11:30 AM

FC Meshakhte Tkibuli

1.3DLDDW

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FC Iberia 1999 Tbilisi

3.1WWWLW

Outcome probability

142363

FC Meshakhte Tkibuli14%Draw23%FC Iberia 1999 Tbilisi63%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1FC Meshakhte Tkibuli14%6.91—

XDraw23%4.42—

2FC Iberia 1999 Tbilisi63%1.59—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes38%

ours 2.62

No62%

ours 1.62

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFC Meshakhte TkibuliFC Iberia 1999 TbilisiCombined

Goals scored0.831.172.00

Conceded0.830.671.50

Corners8.210.49.3

Cards1.73.45.1

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
FC Meshakhte TkibuliFC Iberia 1999 Tbilisi
0Matches in 14 days1
10Table position2
14Days of rest5.9
46.00%Possession58.00%
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
FC Iberia 1999 Tbilisi travel as favourites: despite playing away, a win is rated at 63%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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