All matches

FC Koper — NK Maribor, PrvaLiga

Slovenia, PrvaLiga

FC Koper
3.0WLWWW
—
NK Maribor
2.6DWDWW
Outcome probability
462627
FC Koper46%Draw26%NK Maribor27%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1FC Koper46%2.15—
XDraw26%3.81—
2NK Maribor27%3.66—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes52%

ours 1.93

No48%

ours 2.07

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFC KoperNK MariborCombined
Goals scored0.831.502.33
Conceded0.500.831.33
Corners9.310.59.9
Cards3.01.84.8
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    FC KoperNK Maribor
    2Table position1
    52.80%Possession61.80%
    9.5Days of rest9.3
    1Matches in 14 days1
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Home advantage and current form favour FC Koper: a home win is rated at 46%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

First half total: Under 1.5

70%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

FC Koper

  • homeNK Nafta 1903 Lendava2:0
  • homeNK Olimpija Ljubljana1:3
  • awayNK Celje1:0
  • awayNK Aluminij1:0
  • awayNŠ Mura1:0

NK Maribor

  • homeNK Aluminij2:2
  • awayNK Radomlje3:0
  • homeNŠ Mura1:1
  • awayNK Nafta 1903 Lendava3:2
  • homeAŠK Bravo Publikum3:1

Head to head

  • 08/09/26PrvaLiga0:2
  • 04/14/26PrvaLiga3:1
  • 02/08/26PrvaLiga0:2
  • 10/19/25PrvaLiga1:0
  • 08/03/25PrvaLiga2:2

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1NK Maribor1055019:820
2FC Koper1053211:818
3AŠK Bravo Publikum1053212:1018
4NK Olimpija Ljubljana1042410:814

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.