All matches

FC Karpaty Lviv — FK Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, Ukrainian Premier League

Ukraine, Ukrainian Premier League

FC Karpaty Lviv
2.3DWLDW
—
FK Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
1.6LLDWD
Outcome probability
602515
FC Karpaty Lviv60%Draw25%FK Epitsentr Dunayivtsi15%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1FC Karpaty Lviv60%1.67—
XDraw25%4.04—
2FK Epitsentr Dunayivtsi15%6.51—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes49%

ours 2.03

No51%

ours 1.97

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFC Karpaty LvivFK Epitsentr DunayivtsiCombined
Goals scored1.330.501.83
Conceded0.670.831.50
Corners11.010.610.8
Cards1.82.44.2
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    FC Karpaty LvivFK Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
    3Table position6
    7.1Days of rest8.2
    49.40%Possession54.20%
    1Matches in 14 days1
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Home advantage and current form favour FC Karpaty Lviv: a home win is rated at 60%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total corners: Under 12.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

FC Karpaty Lviv

  • homeFC Veres Rivne1:1
  • awayFK Kolos Kovalivka2:0
  • homeFC Shakhtar Donetsk1:2
  • awayFK Livyi Bereh1:1
  • homeFK Bukovyna Chernivtsi3:0

FK Epitsentr Dunayivtsi

  • homeFK Livyi Bereh0:2
  • awayFC Dynamo Kyiv0:3
  • homeFK Bukovyna Chernivtsi0:0
  • awayFK Kudrivka3:0
  • homeFC Veres Rivne0:0

Head to head

  • 04/19/26Ukrainian Premier League0:0
  • 10/19/25Ukrainian Premier League1:3

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1FC Shakhtar Donetsk760115:418
2Polessya Zhitomir760115:518
3FC Karpaty Lviv742115:514
4FC Dynamo Kyiv64119:513
5FC Metalist 1925 Kharkiv640212:412
6FK Epitsentr Dunayivtsi72236:78
7LNZ Cherkasy FC72235:88
8FC Zorya Luhansk72237:118

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.