FC İnter Bakı — FK Safa, Premyer Liqası

Azerbaijan, Premyer LiqasıOctober 16 at 12:00 AM

FC İnter Bakı

1.4WDWDD

—

FK Safa

1.7LLLLW

Outcome probability

423127

FC İnter Bakı42%Draw31%FK Safa27%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1FC İnter Bakı42%2.38—

XDraw31%3.20—

2FK Safa27%3.76—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes28%

ours 3.57

No72%

ours 1.39

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFC İnter BakıFK SafaCombined

Goals scored1.170.331.50

Conceded0.501.502.00

Corners7.88.68.2

Cards2.41.03.4

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
FC İnter BakıFK Safa
6Table position10
5.5Days of rest4.4
46.80%Possession41.00%
1Matches in 14 days1
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Home advantage and current form favour FC İnter Bakı: a home win is rated at 42%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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