FC Iberia 1999 Tbilisi — FC Torpedo Kutaisi, Erovnuli Liga

Georgia, Erovnuli LigaOctober 26 at 03:00 PM

FC Iberia 1999 Tbilisi

3.1WWWLW

—

FC Torpedo Kutaisi

2.4LWDDL

Outcome probability

502624

FC Iberia 1999 Tbilisi50%Draw26%FC Torpedo Kutaisi24%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1FC Iberia 1999 Tbilisi50%2.00—

XDraw26%3.81—

2FC Torpedo Kutaisi24%4.23—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes54%

ours 1.85

No46%

ours 2.18

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFC Iberia 1999 TbilisiFC Torpedo KutaisiCombined

Goals scored0.331.171.50

Conceded0.001.171.17

Corners9.010.89.9

Cards4.02.06.0

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
FC Iberia 1999 TbilisiFC Torpedo Kutaisi
2Table position6
3Matches in 14 days1
3.9Days of rest8
50.00%Possession49.00%
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Home advantage and current form favour FC Iberia 1999 Tbilisi: a home win is rated at 50%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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