FASTAV Zlin — Slavia Prague, First League

Czech Republic, First LeagueOctober 9 at 04:00 PM

FASTAV Zlin

1.2DLLLL

—

Slavia Prague

3.8WWLWW

Outcome probability

FASTAV Zlin4%Draw7%Slavia Prague89%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1FASTAV Zlin4%25.91—

XDraw7%13.39—

2Slavia Prague89%1.13—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes46%

ours 2.15

No54%

ours 1.87

Over 2.5 goals

This market opens with a subscription.

See plans

Over 9.5 corners

This market opens with a subscription.

See plans

Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFASTAV ZlinSlavia PragueCombined

Goals scored1.172.503.67

Conceded2.171.003.17

Corners12.011.211.6

Cards2.21.53.7

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

Start free Plans

Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
FASTAV ZlinSlavia Prague
16Table position1
38.20%Possession48.70%
14Days of rest14
0Matches in 14 days0
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Away from home, SK Slavia Praha still look stronger — an away win is rated at 89%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Start free Plans